All in Economics

First Republic Count Down

Yes, the taxpayers will be the unwitting holders of First Republic’s bad assets, while one of the FDIC’s favored bidders gets the good stuff at a discount. Jamie Dimon’s J.P. Morgan already has ten percent of the nation’s deposits making that bank ineligible to pick up First Republic but don’t be surprised if Jamie receives a  “special government waiver” if he submits the winning bid. 

Retail Investors Positioned For Thrashing

Individual investors are fighting the Fed trading options that expire the same day they begin trading. “This week, volume for contracts that expire on the same day they’re traded hit a record 50% share of all the options transactions on the S&P 500, data from CBOE and Nomura show.” 

L.A. Walk Away

CoStar News reports, “The loan defaults are another sign of struggle for office real estate owners in the nation's second-largest city as remote working policies enacted in the pandemic hamper demand. National office real estate demand has been curtailed since 2020, with vacancy at 12.8%, its highest since the Great Recession, according to CoStar data.”  

The Fed's Thumb Prints

The dollar’s value is a symptom, and when it goes up, “what that tells you is that there’s tightening in the global monetary system for a variety of reasons, usually self-reinforcing reasons,” Snider explained. Money is tight, markets are risk averse, with the result being a recession is coming forthwith.

Too Good to be True, Too Good to Resist

Get rich quick schemes never go out of style. Robbing Peter to pay Paul excels in its simplicity. Forget gauging the winds of the markets or the bouncing ball on a roulette wheel. Phony promises work on a gullible public to this day. “We are all gamblers,” Ponzi believed. “We all crave easy money. And plenty of it. If we didn't, no get-rich-quick scheme could be successful.”

The NFL Draft: Grappling with Uncertainty

The draft seems dreadfully dull to watch for even the most ardent fans. But, the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA) figures the town will clean up hosting three nights of player picking on the water. It’s being compared to New Year's Eve with attendance of one million people (with some double-counting).

When Higher Prices are Not Inflation

“You have this huge imbalance of supply and demand which is causing the prices to skyrocket,” Sundaram told CNBC Make It. The question is, is this inflation? Austrians would say no. These price increases are the normal process of a market clearing when supply, for whatever reason, isn’t satisfying all of the demand. Consumers who can and most desire the product will pay more for the limited supply.

Speculation, on Earth and the Metaverse

Mark Twain and Will Rogers are both credited with “Buy land, they're not making it anymore.” Both men have passed. But, has their land wisdom left us as well? Ms. Kamin writes, presumably with a straight face, “real estate investing in the metaverse still is highly speculative.”

Housing Hubris

Mari’s piece chronicles the trials and tribulations of millennials (who are now the largest generation) simply trying to buy a home. In some cases, the offers are made long distance on the basis of images from their computer screens. Nationwide home prices have soared nearly 25 percent. But, where the jobs are, in medium-size metropolitan areas such as Boise, Phoenix, Austin, and Salt Lake City, prices have soared 46 percent; 36 percent; 35 percent; and 33 percent, respectively.

Biden is Not at Fault for Higher Gas Prices...Yet

Gas prices increased considerably during the last few months of the Trump regime and have continued during Biden’s term. Why? That annoying economics thing, supply and demand. Americans are driving more since the pandemic has abated, like, for instance, to work. Vehicle miles driven has nearly doubled from a low of just over 160 billion miles in April 2020 to 290 billion in July of this year.

The Fed and Opioids

While the U.S. press harps on inequality, there is no mention of Marx’s 5th plank, i.e. The Federal Reserve. “The creation of money out of thin air, or legal counterfeiting, by central banks,” wrote Frank Hollenbeck for mises.org. creates “undesirable and unjustified source of income inequalities.” He continued, “It should be no surprise the growing gap in income inequalities has coincided with the adoption of fiat currencies worldwide.”